The Miami Dolphins will start Tyler Huntley under center on Monday Night Football vs. the Tennessee Titans with Huntley tabbed as a better runner, our Tyreek Hill props have the wide receiver starved of targets.
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Sep 29, 2024 • 11:13 ET • 4 min read
The Miami Dolphins will look to get back on track against a struggling Tennessee Titans team in the first of two Monday Night Football games.
To do that, they’ll need Tyreek Hill to play up to his All-Pro ability, even with Tua Tagovailoa out and Tyler Huntley starting.
Unfortunately for the Dolphins, the Titans' defense has quietly gotten off to a decent start, making the Tyreek Hill odds for Monday, September 30, difficult to feel good about in this matchup.
Tyreek Hill MNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Tyreek Hill Under 4.5 receptions
(-128 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Under 4.5 receptions
Under 51.5 receiving yards
Over 6.5 1Q receiving yards
(+467 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Tyreek Hill MNF prop pick
My best bet
Tyreek Hill Under 4.5 receptions(-128 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The start of the Miami Dolphins’ season has gone about as badly as possible with Tagovailoa’s concussion and a 1-2 start. Obviously, Skylar Thompson isn’t a serviceable backup and it’s a shock Miami didn’t invest in a QB capable of getting its stars the ball.
But even with a QB change to Tyler Huntley, it’s going to be much of the same for the Dolphins against the Titans. Don’t let Huntley’s Pro Bowl nod in 2022 fool you, he’s not a top-notch backup QB.
There’s a reason the Baltimore Ravens opted for journeyman Josh Johnson over Snoop. And I think we’ll see similar production from Tyreek Hill with Huntley at QB.
Hill’s failed to catch more than three passes in back-to-back games, and for as bad as the Titans are, this pass defense is actually in the top half of the league.
Tennessee is 12th in EPA per dropback and against a similar situation when they played the Green Bay Packers, they held every receiver to Under 4.5 receptions. That’s a credit to the cornerback trio of Chidobe Awuzie, Roger McCreary, and L’Jarius Sneed.
Hill’s previously struggled against Sneed, and all three Titans’ starting cornerbacks are allowing a QB rating of 78.1 or lower when targeted, per PFF. While Sneed is questionable for the game, he was a full participant in Friday’s practice.
On the other side, the Dolphins aren’t just down their starting QB. Star left tackle Terron Armstead is also out, making it that much harder to drop back and pass against this Tennessee defense.
It’s also fair to assume that Mike McDaniel is going with Huntley in the hopes of emulating what the Packers did with Malik Willis against this defense. Expect a run-heavy approach with Huntley and De’Von Achane — Hill might even be a more effective rusher than a receiver in this one.
Tyreek Hill MNF same-game parlay
Under 4.5 receptions
Under 51.5 receiving yards
Over 6.5 1Q receiving yards
+467 at FanDuel
Over the last two games, Hill has put up just 64 total receiving yards. And with Huntley in, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to get to 50.
The last time Huntley started a game - Week 18 for the Ravens last season - he wasn’t credited with a single big-time throw and had an average depth of target of only 6.1. He’s an ultra-conservative passer, which works against Hill’s big-play ability.
Even during Huntley’s “Pro Bowl” season, he made just three big-time throws in six games with an ADOT of 7.4. He hasn’t even thrown for 200 yards in his last seven starts.
And with Sneed potentially seeing the bulk of the snaps vs. Hill, it will only make it harder to hit big plays. Sneed’s allowed just five receptions for 65 yards in three games this season.
Last year when Sneed was with the Kansas City Chiefs, Hill only had five receptions for 62 yards in their matchup in the playoffs. And that was with Tagovailoa healthy.
With that said, I do expect McDaniel to try and get Hill the ball early with a manufactured touch (screen, pop pass, etc). That should help him reach at least seven receiving yards in the first quarter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
New Users
Get $200 in bonus bets and a free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket with FanDuel!
Bet $5 on the NFL and get $200 in bonus bets — PLUS a free three-week trial of the NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV!
Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.
Claim Now at
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
See FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Pages related to this topic
Best Football Betting Sites
Best Football Betting Promo Codes
College football betting sites
Best Betting Sites for NFL Props
Best NFL Parlay Betting Sites
Super Bowl Betting Sites
Best Football Betting Apps